A Novel Approach to Generate Hourly Photovoltaic Power Scenarios

Photovoltaic power is playing an ever-increasing role in the energy mix of countries worldwide. It a stochastic source, and simulation models are needed to establish reliable risk management. This paper presents novel approach for simulating hourly solar irradiation and—as consequence—photovoltaic based on easily accessible data such as wind, temperature, cloudiness. Solar simulations generated via multiplication factor that scales maximum possible irradiation. then derived using formulas approximate physical interdependencies. The resulting unbiased annual level reasonably reflect historic movements. Interpreting our descriptive model, we find error values vary over year with granularity. Errors highest when considering wintertime, especially morning or late afternoon.