Arctic amplification has already peaked

Abstract It has been demonstrated that the Arctic warmed at almost four times global average rate since 1979, a phenomenon known as amplification. However, this rapid warming is tightly linked to retreat and thinning of summer sea ice, so may be expected weaken transitions seasonal ice cover. Here we show evidence from gridded observations climate reanalysis amplification peaked sometime in early 2000s. This occurred concurrently with maximum loss area, thickness, volume. From CMIP6 projections CESM2 large ensemble see unlikely high again any future point 21st century except lowest emissions scenarios which temperatures stabilize while continues warm.