Assessing Rainfall Variability in Jamaica Using CHIRPS: Techniques and Measures for Persistence, Long and Short-Term Trends

Jamaica, as a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), is highly vulnerable to weather extremes. As precipitation persistence critical factor in determining the susceptibility of an area risks, this work assesses spatial and temporal variations rainfall Jamaica from 1981 2020, using satellite-based information. The Hurst exponent (H) serial correlation coefficient (SCC) are used evaluate long-term Persistence Threshold (PT) concept introduced provide description characteristics over short periods, specifically, number consecutive days with above or below set threshold value. PT method novel that expands upon Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) Wet (CWD) methods only consider 1 mm. Results show notable decades, overall increasing trend high decreasing low persistence. Geographically, northern mountainous received most persistent study period observed increase extreme events. excess 2001–2010 decade remarkable study, coinciding global unprecedented climate extremes during time. We conclude data viable for understanding modeling trends SIDS like derived useful tool short-term trends, but it just one step toward flood drought risk. Further research will focus on developing indices.