Modeling the Baltic countries’ Green Transition and Desynchronization from the Russian Electricity Grid

In the next ten years, Baltic countries ― Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are planning large investments in renewable power generation transfer capacity, substantial phase-out of fossil-based generation, desynchronization from Russian electricity grid. this article, operational impacts these changes on energy system 2017 to 2030 studied with an open-source Backbone model. The operation Estonian, Latvian Lithuanian heat, transport, building sectors optimized simultaneously hourly level, results analysed operational, environmental, economic, security indicators. Results suggest that planned transition would support targets (from 45% 92%) self-reliance (2.3 TWh increase domestic 5.5 decrease natural gas imports) a moderate impact costs. However, transport CO2 emissions could risk national non-ETS targets. system, high share wind solar, is based active use storages interconnectors. Model raise concerns about amount Estonian dispatchable commercial feasibility CHP’s, ramping rates