Viterbi-Based Estimation for Markov Switching GARCH Model

Theory and Inference for a Markov Switching Garch Model

We develop a Markov-switching GARCH model (MS-GARCH) wherein the conditional mean and variance switch in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a hidden Markov chain. We provide sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity and existence of moments of the process. Because of path dependence, maximum likelihood estimation is not feasible. By enlarging the parameter...

Long memory with Markov-Switching GARCH

Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Forecasting for GARCH, Markov Switching, and Locally Stationary Wavelet Processes

Yingfu Xie. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Forecasting for GARCH, Markov Switching, and Locally Stationary Wavelet Processes. Doctoral Thesis. ISSN 1652-6880, ISBN 978-91-85913-06-0. Financial time series are frequently met both in daily life and the scientific world. It is clearly of importance to study the financial time series, to understand the mechanism giving rise to the data, and/or p...

A Bayesian MCMC Algorithm for Markov Switching GARCH models

Markov switching GARCH models have been developed in order to address the statistical regularity observed in financial time series such as strong persistence of conditional variance. However, Maximum Likelihood Estimation faces a implementation problem since the conditional variance depends on all the past history of state. This paper shows that this problem can be handled easily in Bayesian in...

A Bayesian Markov-switching Model for Sparse Dynamic Network Estimation

Inferring Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) from multivariate time series data is a key step towards the understanding of complex systems as it reveals important dependency relationship underlying such systems. Most of the traditional approaches assume a “static” DBN. Yet in many relevant applications, such as those arising in biology and social sciences, the dependency structures may vary over ...