Scenario-based Supply Chain Network risk modeling

This paper provides a risk modeling approach for Supply Chain Networks (SCNs) operating under uncertainty. It recognizes three event types to characterize the future SCN environment: random, hazardous and deeply uncertain events. A three-phase hazard modeling approach is proposed. It involves a characterization of SCN hazards in terms of multihazards, vulnerability sources and exposure levels, the estimation of incident arrival, intensity and duration processes, and the assessment of SCN hit consequences in terms of damage and time to recovery. A Monte Carlo approach is also proposed to generate plausible future scenarios. Two realistic cases are examined to illustrate the key aspects of the approach, and to demonstrate its usefulness for SCN design under