Lecture 10 Short-term Selection Response

Quantitative geneticists usually distinguish between the shortand long-term response to selection. If we are only trying to predict a few generations of selection response, knowledge of the base population genetic variances (and in particular the heritability) is usually sufficient to make a satisfactory prediction. However, as selection proceeds and allele frequencies change significantly, the initial genetic variances essentially lack any predictive power for the long-term response. The focus in this lecture is on just what predictions we can make for short-term response and some of the complications that can arise.