Propagating versus Nonpropagating Madden–Julian Oscillation Events

Basinwide convective anomalies over the IndianOcean (IO) associated with theMadden–Julian oscillation (MJO) sometimes propagate eastward and reach the west Pacific (WP), but sometimes do not. Long-term observations and reanalysis products are used to investigate the difference between the propagating and nonpropagating MJO events. IO convection onset events associated with the MJO are grouped into three categories based on the strengths of the simultaneous dry anomalies over the easternMaritime Continent and WP. The IO convection anomaly preferentially makes eastward propagation and reaches the WP when the dry anomaly is stronger. Analysis of the column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget shows that horizontal advection moistens the atmosphere to the east of the positiveMSEanomaly associatedwith the active convection over the IOand is of sufficient magnitude to explain the eastward propagation of the positive MSE anomaly. Interpretation is complicated, however, by lack of closure in theMSE budget. A residual term, of smaller but comparablemagnitude to the horizontal advection, also moistens the column to the east of the positive MSE anomaly. Nonetheless, the authors decompose the horizontal advection term into contributions fromdifferent scales and find that a dominant contribution is from free-tropospheric meridional advection by the intraseasonal time scale wind anomalies. The positivemeridional advection in between the convective and dry anomalies is induced by the anomalous poleward flow, which is interpreted as part of the Rossby wave response to the dry anomaly. The poleward flow advects the climatological MSE, which peaks at the equator, and moistens to the east of IO convective anomaly.