توسعه و ارزیابی مدل‌های تخمین تابش خورشیدی بر اساس ساعات آفتابی و اطلاعات هواشناسی

Global solar radiation (Rs) has wide applications in several disciplines. The data of measured or predicted Rs are widely applied by solar engineers, architects, agriculturists and hydrologists. Due to the importance of Rs, several empirical models have been developed to predict its values all over the world. In this study, Angstrom model was calibrated based on the ratio of actual and possible sunshine hours n/N by using measured daily data of Rs at Bajghah meteorological station in Fars province during 2003-2004. The model was modified by using air temperature for considering the effect of cloudy conditions as well as n/N ratios. The results showed that using both the air temperatures and the ratios of n/N led to a higher accuracy. In regard to estimation of the Rs values, the results showed that mean air temperatures have a higher accuracy compared with differences between maximum and minimum air temperatures. Also, a new local model with higher accuracy was developed based on a number of daily meteorological parameters such as deficit vapor pressure, relative humidity, precipitation, mean air temperature, maximum and minimum air temperatures difference and n/N. This new local model that used different meteorological parameters had the highest accuracy in comparison with the other models. Also, a number of models developed by other investigators for estimation of Rs were calibrated for the study area. Finally, different selected models were validated by using the measured data of Rs in 2005. The results showed that the developed local multi-variable model provided higher accuracy results in comparison with the other radiation models.