شناسایی الگوهای سینوپتیکیِ بارش‌ های سیل خیزِ غرب ایران

Precipitation is not only a critical process in global hydrologic cycle but also an important indicator of climate change (Fu et al.,2016). Precipitation is a key factor of the global water cycle and affects all aspects of human life. Because of its great importance and its high spatial and temporal variability (Thies and Bendix.,2011). Climate change is caused many extreme climatic occurrences in recent decades. One of most   important   extreme   events   is   extreme   precipitation. The changes of temporal-spatial patterns of precipitation may potentially cause severe droughts or flood hazards (Jiang et al., 2008).  There   are   many environmental damages which are related to these events. Precipitation events were examined and studied by many researchers. The purpose of the study is evaluating of the structure and origin of the events in the west of Iran. Studies    about   extereme   precipitation   is   somewhat   strong.     Robert,   1993 evaluated many flashflood in United States which is related to short wave at 500 hgt   level.   Many   researchers   also   studied   this   type   of   precipitation   such   as Kumar, 2008 and etc. Trend analysis is another approach is related to this scope. Globally, precipitation increases in equatorial rain bands; decreases in subtropics as greater tropical convection in the rising branch of the Hadley circulation will lead to enhanced subsidence in the subtropics; and increases in high-latitudes due to increase in moisture transport (Huang et al., 2013). Synoptic analysis of the events is required due to increseing trend of this events and tremendous socioeconomic impacts on many places. First,   a   99  percentile   for recognition of  extereme   precipitation  is applied  for  daily precipitation during 2000-2015 at seven weather stations in the west of Iran. Then principal component analysis carried out in order to reduce correlated data (SLP, hgt at 500and 850level) which is associated to synoptic patterns. Two extereme   precipitations are   selected   for   synoptic   analyses.   In   order   to   better   perspective   of   these patterns   analyses are performed using sea level pressure, 500 and 800 hgt level,   omega,   u-wind,   V-wind,   relative   humidity,   and   TRMM   precipitation Radar data. TRMM data is used due to satellite systems provide a unique opportunity to monitor Earth-atmosphere system processes and parameters continuously and the correct spatio-temporal detection and quantification of precipitation has been one of the main goals of meteorological satellite missions (Thies and Bendix.,2011). The results of precipitation data showed extereme   precipitation dates based on 99 percentile are as fallows during 2000-2015 time period: 29 Jan   2013,   30 Nov   2008   ,   3   and   4   feb   2006,   25 Dec 2004,   13   jan 2004, 1 dec 2001, 24 mar 2000, 2 may 2010, 29 and 30 Oct 2015. After identitying extereme   precipitations, PCA (principal component analysis) applied for SLP data, Geopotential hight at 500 and 850 levels data in oredr to  recognition the synoptic patterns.   The   results   indicate   that   there is only   one   component   which   explains   99 percent of variances of data. Therefore the one synoptic pattern incorporated in formation of  extereme   precipitation in the west of Iran. Then for better understanding of this pattern, we are selected two extereme   precipitation reanalysis data  (29 oct 2015) and (13 Jan 2004)  and evaluated sea   level   pressure,   500  and  800   hgt   level,  omega,  u-wind,  V-wind,   relative humidity,  and   TRMM   precipitation   Radar   data in   these   dates. The purpose of this proccess was monitoring different parameter in two dates.  The results illustrated interesting conditions which is related only to providing appropraite condition for extereme   precipitation formation. Many   conditions required to the events as fallows: SLP lower than 1000 hpa over the west of Iran, surface relative humidity larger than 70 percent, negative omega lower than -0.3, positive vortices which indicate cyclogenesis. Another most important factor which caused extereme   precipitation is location of trough. In all cases, the western of Iran located in front of trough at 500 and 850 hpa. The Precipitation Radar   of   TRMM  satellite   also   determined   same   precipitation   patterns   which are specific for the west of Iran.   This is only one part of the heavy precipitation  studies at west of Iran the authours sugesst climate change studies such as trend analysis in a long time period, simulation with regional models as Regcm and WRF,  appling ERA-interim data which can provide fine spatial resolution up to 0.25 degree over study area which  need to be done in order to completion of the results.