The Design of Inverse Network DEA Model for Measuring the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains with Uncertain Demands
Two different bullwhip effects with equal scores may have different sensitivities and production patterns. As a result, the difference between these two seemingly equal scores has been ignored in previous methods (such as frequency response and moving average). So, the present study constructs a model of Inverse Network Data Envelopment Analysis, to introduce the relative and interval scores of the bullwhip effect magnitude, when a series of uncertain demands are made in a specific time interval. In the first stage of the proposed network, the uncertain demands and the forecasted uncertain data are regarded respectively as the model’s inputs and outputs. These output data constitute the intermediate variables and consequently the inputs of the second stage of the study model. In the second stage, after considering the ordering policies, the uncertain orders are sent. Due to utilizing both the optimistic and pessimistic perspectives, the study methodology includes an interval value for measuring the bullwhip effect with relative attitude. In the optimistic perspective, the analyzed decision making unit has the optimal status in comparison with other decision making units. In the pessimistic perspective, the analyzed decision making unit has the worst status in comparison with other decision making units. The results show that time is an unfair factor in the size of the bullwhip effect. The impact of uncertainties on the bullwhip effect in the demand forecasting stage is greater than the ordering stage. According to the research findings, cross-sectional planning is possible at different times according to different conditions. Therefore, using the results of the research, a fair score of the bullwhip effect can be obtained by considering all perspectives.
investigating the feasibility of a proposed model for geometric design of deployable arch structures
deployable scissor type structures are composed of the so-called scissor-like elements (sles), which are connected to each other at an intermediate point through a pivotal connection and allow them to be folded into a compact bundle for storage or transport. several sles are connected to each other in order to form units with regular polygonal plan views. the sides and radii of the polygons are...
Consider multiple companies operating as a serial supply chain. Within this environment, end users form the demand for the last company in the supply chain, but the demand for upstream companies is formed by the companies in the immediate downstream supply chain link. It has been shown that demand seasonality and forecast error can increase as we proceed up the supply chain. These demand distor...متن کامل
In this paper, a two-echelon supply chain, which includes two products based on the following considerations, has been studied and the bullwhip effect is quantified. Providing a measure for bullwhip effect that enables us to analyze and reduce this phenomenon in supply chains with two products is the basic purpose of this paper. Demand of products is presented by the first order vector autoregr...متن کامل
اندیشمندان و صاحب نظران علوم اجتماعی بر این باورند که مرحله تازه ای در تاریخ جوامع بشری اغاز شده است. ویژگیهای این جامعه نو را می توان پدیده هایی از جمله اقتصاد اطلاعاتی جهانی ، هندسه متغیر شبکه ای، فرهنگ مجاز واقعی ، توسعه حیرت انگیز فناوری های دیجیتال، خدمات پیوسته و نیز فشردگی زمان و مکان برشمرد. از سوی دیگر قدرت به عنوان موضوع اصلی علم سیاست جایگاه مهمی در روابط انسانی دارد، قدرت و بازتولید...15 صفحه اول
abstract nowadays, the science of decision making has been paid to more attention due to the complexity of the problems of suppliers selection. as known, one of the efficient tools in economic and human resources development is the extension of communication networks in developing countries. so, the proper selection of suppliers of tc equipments is of concern very much. in this study, a ...15 صفحه اول
data envelopment analysis (dea) is a powerful tool for measuring relative efficiency of organizational units referred to as decision making units (dmus). in most cases dmus have network structures with internal linking activities. traditional dea models, however, consider dmus as black boxes with no regard to their linking activities and therefore do not provide decision makers with the reasons...
دوره 14 شماره 2
صفحات 203- 214
تاریخ انتشار 2021-07-01
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