This paper examines some of the characteristics of the foreign exchange market in the 1920s floating period. Nominal returns appear to exhibit properties consistent with asset prices on modern more well-organized financial markets; i.e. they appear to be well described by martingales and possess persistent time dependent heteroscedasticity. In order to deal with the extreme kurtosis in the exch...

In this paper we present new measures for the bias in an import price index due to outsourcing. The m easure is developed fi rst for a high ly simplif ied case for the purpose of conveying the rationale for the measure. It is then generalized, yielding a m eaasure that could b e used in empirical stu dies. Before taking up this bias measurement problem , however, we expl ain the m easurement co...

This paper examines equilibrium determination under different monetary policy regimes when the government might default on its debt. We apply a cash-inadvance model where the government does not have access to non-distortionary taxation and does not account for initial outstanding debt when it sets the income tax rate. Solvency is then not guaranteed and sovereign default can affect the return ...

A small, structural model of the monetary business cycle implies that real money balances enter into a correctly-specified, forward-looking IS curve if and only if they enter into a correctly-specified, forward-looking Phillips curve. The model also implies that empirical measures of real balances must be adjusted for shifts in money demand to accurately isolate and quantify the dynamic effects...

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices where agents have imperfect information on the stance and direction of monetary policy. Agents respond by using Kalman filtering to unravel persistent and temporary monetary policy changes in order to form optimal forecasts of future policy actions. Our results show that a sticky price model with imperf...

Following an analysis of the relation between a standard Steindlian model of stagnation and Steindl’s own analysis, we modify the standard model by introducing endogenous changes in the markup and a reformulation of the investment function. These extensions, which address significant weaknesses of the standard model, find support in Steindl’s writing and leave intact some of Steindl’s key resul...

This paper studies a two-sector New Keynesian model that captures the hump-shaped response of non-durable and durable spending to a monetary shock when non-durable prices are sticky and durable goods are flexibly priced. Based on the estimated parameters, we show that habit formation and investment adjustment costs are not sufficient to generate the gradual response of non-durable and durable s...

This paper examines the impact of public information in an economy where agents also have diverse private information. Since disclosures by central banks are an important source of public information, we are able to assess how the words of central bankers shape expectations, in addition to their actions. In an otherwise standard macro model, the disproportionate role of public information degra...

Earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the high-inflation steady state is not stable under adaptive learning. We reconsider this issue and analyze the full set of solutions for the linearized model. Our main focus is on stationary hyperinflationary paths near the high-inflation steady state. The hyperinflationary paths are stable under learning if agents can utilize ...

This paper offers additional insights on the interactions between economics and politics in Portugal. We use an unexplored data set consisting of monthly polls on vote intentions for the main political parties in Portugal, since 1986. Results indicate that: (1) socialist governments had less electoral support than social democratic governments; (2) social democratic governments enjoyed a honeym...