this paper estimates the determinants of inflation in iran using a linear and non- linear regression model over the period 1959-2008. in the model specification, the conventional variables (liquidity, production and exchange rate) as well as positive and negative oil revenue shocks, monetary disequilibrium, and demand gap are considered. the results show that nonlinear time series regression mo...

Quality Growth Index (QGI) is affected by two sets of combined-structural and social indicators. Structural indicator contributes to achieve the main target of sound-sustainable-competitive output growth. By the way, the sound output growth should enhance social-public services and living standards. Although QGIs are weightedly computed based on different scenarios, the trend of the QGIs and co...

abstract research and development (r&d;) spending plays a major role in innovation, raising productivity and increasing economic growth. the purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of r&d; spending on growth and total factor productivity (tfp) in iran's agricultural sector. we estimate growth and productivity models using auto-regressive distributed lag (ardl) approach and data over ...

in this paper we investigate the long memory of tehran securities price index and fit arfima model using 970 daily data since 1382/1/6 until 1386/4/17. furthermore, we compare the forecasting performance of arfima and arima models. the results show that the series is a long memory one and therefore it can become stationary by fractional differencing. we obtaine the fractional differencing param...

In this paper we investigate the effect of oil price shocks on stock market index in Iran, by using of a structural VAR (SVAR) approach. We used four variables in the model namely Kilian index, global oil supply, real oil price and real stock market index. The data are monthly and spanning the period 1997M10-2014M12. We identify the effect of four different shocks on stock market including oil ...

on one hand, oil is the greatest energy resource in the world and, on the other hand, because of the role of oil revenue in the economic of oil producer countries, such as iran,it is vital for these countries. so it is necessary to recognize different affective parameters on oil market for these countries. in this research, we try to forecast oil price as an important variable in world wide oil...

In practice, central banks have been confronted with a trade-o¤ between stabilising in‡ation and output when dealing with rising oil prices. This contrasts with the result in the standard New Keynesian model that ensuring complete price stability is the optimal thing to do, even when an oil shock leads to large output drops. To reconcile this apparent contradiction, this paper investigates how ...

this paper estimates a structural cointegrating varx model with exogenous variables for iran. the long-run macroeconomic relationships are identified and tested within this framework. we make use of the generalized forecast error variance decomposition to analyze the dynamic properties of the model in response to different shocks. we also examine via the persistence profiles, the speed of adjus...