Forecasting accuracy is one of the most favorable critical issues in Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The study compares the application of two forecasting methods on the amount of Taiwan export, the Fuzzy time series method and ARIMA method. Model discussed for the ARIMA method and Fuzzy time series method include the Sturges rules. When the sample period is extend in o...

BACKGROUND A prediction model for tuberculosis incidence is needed in China which may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning health interventions and allocating health resources. METHODS The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was first constructed with the data of tuberculosis report rate in Hubei Province from Jan 2004 to Dec 2011.The data from Jan 2012 to Jun...

Natural calamities (e.g., hurricane, excessive ice-fall) may often impede the inventory replenishment during the peak sale season. Due to the extreme situations, sales may not occur and demand may not be recorded. This study focuses on forecasting of intermittent seasonal demand by taking random demand with a proportion of zero values in the peak sale season. Demand pattern for a regular time i...

In this study we develop the hybrid models for forecasting in agricultural production planning. Real data of Thailand’s orchid export and Thailand’s pork product are used to validate candidate models. Autoregressive Integrate Moving Average (ARIMA) is also selected as a benchmarking to compare other developed models. The main concept of building the models is to combine different forecasting te...

Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is a broad class of time series models, and it has been achieved using the statistical differencing approach. It is normally being performed using the computational method. Thus, it is useful to choose the suitable model from a possibly large selection of the available ARIMA formulations. The ARIMA approach was then analysed with the presence of...

BACKGROUND We previously proposed a hybrid model combining both the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) models in forecasting schistosomiasis. Our purpose in the current study was to forecast the annual prevalence of human schistosomiasis in Yangxin County, using our ARIMA-NARNN model, thereby further certifying the reliabilit...

هدف: با توجه به کاستی‌های موجود، نظام سیاست‌گذاری سازمانی فرایندی سیستماتیک، هدفمند و منظم برای تولید داده‌های حاصل از عملکرد، پردازش آن‌ها اطلاعات تبدیل آن دانش سیاستی نیاز دارد تا نسبت کم کیف تحقق اهداف سیاست‌ها، آثار پیامدهای موفقیت یا ناکامی‌شان آگاهی داشته تصمیم‌گیری بهره گیرد. ازاین‌رو مسئله اصلی که محقق تلاش رفع می‌پردازد تبیین این موضوع است سیاست‌ها راهبردهای کلان چه پیامدها آثاری در پی...