This paper develops methods for assessing the probability of a systemic failure of the global banking system. We examine a sample of 334 banks (representing 80% of global bank equity) in 28 countries around global financial crises such as the Asian crisis and September 11, 2001. The maximum probability of a systematic failure is estimated as the maximum cumulative abnormal return experienced by...

Almost all previous work on model-based diagnosis has focussed on persistent faults where the prior probability of component failure is provided by the manufacturer or estimated from fleet-wide service records. However, some of the most difficult to diagnose faults are intermittent. It is very difficult to isolate intermittent faults which occur with low frequency but yet at high enough frequen...

We propose and analyze a method for computing failure probabilities of systems modeled as numerical deterministic models (e.g., PDEs) with uncertain input data. A failure occurs when a functional of the solution to the model is below (or above) some critical value. By combining recent results on quantile estimation and the multilevel Monte Carlo method we develop a method which reduces computat...

Internet is powered by the world wide optical network and hence, survivability of optical network is extremely important. Sometimes, the protection for the two failed links interfere with each other and as a consequence only one failure can be protected. In a large optical network, failure probability of two links with overlapping protection can be high, as these links will be very likely geogr...

In the masked system lifetime data, the exact component that causes the system's failure is often unknown. For each series system at test, we observe its system's failure time and a set of components that includes the component actually causing the system to fail. The objective is to make inferences for the reliability of the components. In this paper we consider various probability models for ...

People’s expectations for success can affect their use of information sources in a variety of ways, including their willingness to search at all, their satisfaction (or frustration) with the success that they encounter, and their confidence in the completeness of their search for specific items. An earlier study using a pencil-and-paper format found people to be overconfident in their ability t...

The aim of this paper is to study the probability to find an opportunity of collaboration among small and medium sized firms by participating in the Europartenariat meeting created to encourage co-operation links. Contacts among firms are relatively few in number and are assumed to be generated by a Poisson process. Empirical results of different Poisson regression models with reference to para...