In this paper, I find that real U.S. GDP is better characterized as a trend stationary Markov-switching process than as having a (regime-dependent) unit root. I examine the effects of both assumptions on the analysis of business cycle features and their implications for the persistence of the dynamic response of output to a random disturbance. JEL Classification: E32, C22, E27.

When capacity utilization is allowed to vary, standard equilibrium theory predicts that demand shocks can generate not only closed-economy business cycles that are previously thought explainable only by technology shocks, but also international business cycles that are more consistent with the data than what can be generated by technology shocks. JEL classi ̄cation: E13, E32, F11, F41.

The interaction between income distribution, accumulation, employment and the utilization of capital is central to macroeconomic models in the `heterodox' tradition. This paper examines the stylized pattern of these variables using US data for the period after 1948. We look at the trends and cycles in individual time series and examine the bivariate cycical patterns among the variables. JEL cla...

This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the price and macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC high-frequency data, I identify an news shock. These shocks have statistically economically significant effects. Negative leads to immediate increase prices, gradual fall production, inventories. has consequences for US econo...

The standard linear technique of impulse response function analysis is extended to the nonlinear case by de"ning a generalized impulse response function. Measures of persistence and asymmetry in response are constructed for a wide class of time series. ( 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classixcation: C22; C51; C52; E32

The Great Recession seems to be creating a New Interventionist Economics characterized by bubbles, radical uncertainty, animal spirits, complexity dynamics, and extra-market control. When placed in that order, these characteristic create the acronym BRACE. I review some evidence and literature pointing to BRACE economics and briefly suggest some avenues to challenge the new interventionists. JE...

We show that business cycles reduce welfare through a decrease in the average level of employment labor market search model with learning on job and skill loss during unemployment. Empirically, unemployment job-finding rate are negatively correlated. Since new jobs product these two from transition equation, imply fewer jobs. Learning implies resulting reduces aggregate human capital. This ince...

This paper shows that the unequal incidence of recessions in labor market amplifies aggregate shocks. Using administrative data from United States, I document a positive covariance between workers' marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) and their elasticities earnings GDP, which is key moment for new class heterogeneous-agent models. define matching multiplier as increase stemming this high MP...

We develop a multisector sticky-price DSGE model that can endogenously deliver differential responses of prices to aggregate and sectoral shocks. Input-output production linkages (standard) monetary policy rule contribute slow response In turn, labor market segmentation at the level induces within-sector strategic substitutability in price-setting decisions, which helps fast sector-specific est...