climate is a complex system which is changing mainly due to the increase of greenhouse gases. because of the importance of climate change and the effects it can have on water resources, in recent years, this topic has been taken into consideration for different basins on earth. the objective of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change and forecasting meteorological variables o...

This paper presents a novel approach to incorporate the non-stationarities characterised in the GCM outputs, into the Predictor-Predictand Relationships (PPRs) in statistical downscaling models. In this approach, a series of 42 PPRs based on multi-linear regression (MLR) technique were determined for each calendar month using a 20-year moving window moved at a 1-year time step on the predictor ...

There are significant discrepancies between observational datasets of Arctic sea ice concentrations covering the last three decades, which result in differences of over 20% in Arctic summer sea ice extent/area and 5%–10% in winter. Previous modeling studies have shown that idealized sea ice anomalies have the potential for making a substantial impact on climate. In this paper, this theory is fu...

There are significant discrepancies between observational datasets of Arctic sea ice concentrations covering the last three decades, which result in differences of over 20% in Arctic summer sea ice extent/area and 5%–10% in winter. Previous modeling studies have shown that idealized sea ice anomalies have the potential for making a substantial impact on climate. In this paper, this theory is fu...

The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF ReAnalysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as ‘‘Greenland blocking’’ and ‘‘subpolar jet.’’ Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the r...

This study investigates the impact of CO2 on the amplitude, frequency, and mechanisms of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in millennial simulations of the HadCM3 coupled climate model. Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) and empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) are applied to the AMOC at four quasi-equilibrium CO2 forcings. The amount of variance explai...