Abstract. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a major source of predictability on the sub-seasonal (10 to 90 d) timescale. An improved forecast MJO may have important socioeconomic impacts due influence both tropical and extratropical weather extremes. Although in last decades state-of-the-art climate models proved their capability for forecasting exceeding 5-week prediction skill, there sti...

Reproducing the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains a challenge in many climate models. This study compares MJO simulation skills 17 pairs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6) simulations. Generally, characteristics are better reproduced CMIP6, their inter-model spreads obviously reduced CMIP6. However, most CMIP6 models still underestimate frequency initia...

Abstract. Teleconnections from the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) are a key source of predictability weather on extended timescale about 10–40 d. The MJO teleconnection is sensitive to number factors, including mean dry static stability, flow, and propagation intensity characteristics MJO, which traditionally difficult separate across models. Each these factors may evolve in response increasin...

We assessed the ability of Bureau Meteorology’s ACCESS-S1 dynamical forecast system to simulate and predict high rainfall extremes for each season over Australia, especially focusing on role Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Using retrospective forecasts period 1990–2012, we show that simulated observed modulation extreme weekly mean by phase MJO reasonably well; however changes in probabilities...

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity has a significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. However, it is still challenging problem for present-day models to simulate different types of ENSO events with realistic features simultaneously. In this paper, tropical stochastic skeleton model the interactions among wind bursts Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), Niño, Wal...

The western Maritime Continent (MC) and Southeast Asia lie at the heart of largest area high precipitation on Earth. Extreme is one major high-impact weather events to affect population over 500 million in this region. deep convection associated with extreme difficult forecast, even modern high-resolution numerical prediction explicit convection. However, larger-scale organised convective syste...

While no significant long-term trend in the propagation speed of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) boreal winter is found during past decades, pronounced year-to-year variability MJO phase illustrated by analyzing a century-long record data set. During winters when fast observed, exhibits much larger zonal-scale than that with slow propagation. A broader extension circulation effectively induces ...

Despite recent advancements in numerical models, prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains a major challenge weather and climate modeling. This study explores pathways for improving MJO through systematic investigation effects model resolution moist physics on simulations Part 1, followed by atmosphere-ocean coupling 2. The Unified Wave Interface—Coupled Model (UWIN-CM) experime...