in this paper, the random walk hypothesis and the opec oil market efficiency have been examined. the random walk hypothesis states that prices are completely stochastic in nature so that they have 'no memory'. in its weak-form, changes in prices occur stochastically and, as a result, the random walk behavior of prices is usually used to test the weak-form efficiency. in order to study the rando...

This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the price and macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC high-frequency data, I identify an news shock. These shocks have statistically economically significant effects. Negative leads to immediate increase prices, gradual fall production, inventories. has consequences for US econo...

In the global economy, crude oil is among the most important strategic goods that affects the performance of local and international markets. Prediction of the oil price has always been an important challenging topic in the global economy and producers and consumers have constantly been trying to improve their roll in the oil price changes and for many years OPEC has been one of the key players...