Maximum Relative Drawdown measures the largest percentage drop of the price process on a given time interval. More recently, Maximum Relative Drawdown has become more popular as an alternative measure of risk. In contrast to the Value at Risk measure, it captures the path property of the price process. In this article, we propose a partial differential equation approach to determine the theoret...

study of the changes in the stock price in tehran stock exchange is of great importance. this is because of its application in forecasting the stock price in the stock exchange. the aim of this article is to investigate the forces and mechanisms that cause the dramatic changes in stock price and the formation of chaotic trend. to test whether the chaotic trend in the tehran stock exchange exist...

The stock market has always been an attractive area for researchers since no method has been found yet to predict the stock price behavior precisely. Due to its high rate of uncertainty and volatility, it carries a higher risk than any other investment area, thus the stock price behavior is difficult to simulation. This paper presents a “data mining-based evolutionary fuzzy expert system” (DEFE...

We derive optimal portfolio weights for an investor who has a strong belief on the distribution of the stock price at a future time. That distribution may be in disagreement with standard equilibrium pricing models, and the investor wants to take advantage of the perceived mispricing and attractive risk premium. We compute numerically optimal weights for models in which the investor believes th...

Stock price has been found to provide important information about future economic activities. Fama (1981), Fischer and Merton (1984), and Barro (1990), among many others, document a positive relation between stock market return and subsequent growth in investment and output. These findings are consistent with rational expectations asset pricing models, in which stock price is equal to the sum o...

This paper investigates the systemic risk contributions of each financial institution during stock market crash in China using beta. Based on FARM-Selection (Factor Adjusted Regularized Model Selection) approach, we calculate beta, implying importance crash. We find that security firms are main contributors to risk. In addition, some macro variables have a significant influence risk, including ...

We derive representations for the stock price drift and volatility in the equilibrium of agents with arbitrary, heterogeneous utility functions and with the aggregate dividend following an arbitrary Markov diffusion. We introduce a new, intrinsic characteristic of the aggregate dividend process that we call the ”rate of discounting volatility” and show that, in equilibrium, the size of market p...

the difficulty of determining intrinsic value of stock prices have led many people to use technical analysis in order to forecast stock prices in the future. to predict the stock price we need to determine the generating process of stock prices. in recent years many time - series methods have been used for forecasting purposes. one of these methods is the rescaled range analysis (ris). in the a...

The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 wiped out US$37 trillions across global financial markets, this value is equivalent to the combined GDPs of the United States and the European Union in 2014. The defining moment of this crisis was the failure of Lehman Brothers, which precipitated the October 2008 crash and the Asian Correction (March 2009). Had the Federal Reserve seen these crashes com...

In a finite time horizon, incomplete market, continuous-time setting with dividends and investor incomes governed by arithmetic Brownian motions, we derive closed-form solutions for the equilibrium risk-free rate and stock price for an economy with finitely many heterogeneous CARA investors and unspanned income risk. In equilibrium, the Sharpe ratio is the same as in an otherwise identical comp...