اقتصادسنجی ساختاری اوپک

This study examines the time series behavior of oil production for OPEC member countries in a fractional integration modeling framework. It’s aim is to identify the potential for structural breaks and outliers. The analysis is based on a monthly data from January 1973 to October 2008 for 12 OPEC member countries. The results indicate that a mean reverting persistence in breaks has been experienced in ten of twelve oil production countries. Thus it is obvious that shocks affect on the structure of OPEC oil production and have persistent effects in the long run for all countries. In some countries is expected the effects to be permanent.