Modeling and Prioritizing Iran's Thermal Power Plant Development Policies Based On Environmental Constraints

Iran is ranked as the ninth largest greenhouse gas producer in the world, with an annual emission of nearly 180 million tons of CO2 by thermal power plants.. The purpose of this research is to simulate and optimize the optimal economic and environmental load dispatch and a portfolio of efficiency improvement strategies on both supply and demand sides in MT1, MT2, and EEP scenarios in using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) modeler and its OSeMOSYS optimizer system. We do this using the time series data from 2008 to 2018 of the country's energy balance. Our modelling allowed us to estimate the current situation and forecast of supply and demand of thermal electricity, types of costs, and the amount of greenhouse gas emissions  for the whole country over a 20-year period (2011-2030). We identified the most efficient policy for improving the environmental economic efficiency of the thermal power sector in line with the Paris Agreement in the form of the best scenario through cost-benefit analysis by determining the optimal dispatching of thermal power plants. The results showed that all alternative scenarios with a reduction of more than 15% emissions and environmental economic benefits of more than $ 8 billion compared to the BAU scenario would achieve Iran's INDC goals and meet our commitments under either a conditional or an unconditional agreement. JEL Classification: C53, C61, Q41, Q54, Q58 Keywords: Energy Modeling, Low Carbon Power, Optimal Load Dispatching, Simultaneous Supply and Demand Management