بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر میزان پایداری مصرف آب در بخش کشاورزی حوضه آبریز زاینده ‌رود

This study investigated the effects of climate change on the evapotranspiration amount and water balance in the Zayandeh-Rud river basin. Two important weather stations; Isfahan and Chelgerd stations, located in the East and West of the basin respectively, were selected for investigation in this study. The combination of 15 GCM models were created based on the weighting method and three patterns of climate change including the ideal, medium and critical were defined. Using the proposed patterns, the effects of climate change on temperature and evapotranspiration in Isfahan station and precipitation in Chelgerd station were estimated under the A2 and B1 emissions scenarios. Two indices were considered to determine the sustainability of agricultural water consumption in the study area. Ratio of evapotranspiration in the East part of the basin to precipitation in the West part was defined as EPR index (Evapotranspiration-Precipitation Ratio), and the ratio of maximum agricultural water deficit to the amount of agriculture water need, was considered as maximum deficit index (MD). Results showed that the annual temperature would increase between 0.63-1.13°C in the eastern part of the basin. The west precipitation in the basin would reduce between 6.5-30% in the ideal to critical patterns. Summer season, showed the most amount of increase in the temperature, and winter season, showed the most amount of decrease in precipitation. The A2 emission scenario showed more temperature increase and more precipitation decrease in comparison with the B1 emission scenario and also indicated that the potential evapotranspiration would increase by 3.1 to 4.8% in the basin. The EPR index will increase between 13-52% and MD index will increase between 9-35% in Zayandeh-Rud river basin under different climate change patterns. The results revealed the imbalance between agricultural water use in eastern part and the precipitation in the western part of the basin. In other words, in these conditions, appropriate management strategies and planning should be implemented to ensure the sustainability of water resources in Zayandeh-Rud River Basin.