Performance Evaluation of ARIMA Hybrid Models in the Prediction of Daily Electrical Conductivity (A Case Study of Telazang Hydrometric Station)

In this study, we used the ARIMA time series model, the fuzzy-neural inference network, multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network, and ARIMA-ANN, ARIMA-ANFIS hybrid models for the modeling and prediction of the daily electrical conductivity parameter of daily teleZang hydrometric station over the statistical period of 49 years. For this purpose, the daily data for the 1996-2004 period were used for model training and data for the 1996-2006 period were applied for testing. In order to verify the validity of the fitted ARIMA models, the residual autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions and Port Manteau statistics were used. PMI algorithm were   then used to model and predict electrical conductivity for selecting the effective input parameter of the neural fuzzy inference network and the artificial neural network. The daily parameters of magnesium (with two days delay) and sodium (with one day delay), heat (with one day delay), flow rate (with two months delay), and acidity (with one day delay) were obtained with the lowest values of Akaike and highest values of hempel statistics as the input of the neural fuzzy inference network and the artificial neural network for modelling daily electric conductivity predictions; then predictions were made. Also, models evaluation criteria confirmed the superiority of the ARIMA-ANFIS hybrid model with the trapezoidal membership function and with two membership numbers, as compared to other models with a coefficient of determination of 0.86 and the root mean square of 29 dS / m. Also, the Arima model had the weakest performance. So, it could be applied to modeling and forecasting the daily quality parameter of the tele Zang hydrometer station.