Providing A Model for Management Earnings Forecast Bias

Despite The Important Role That Management Profit Forecasting Plays In The Decision Making Of Capital Market Actors, These Predictions Appear To Be Biased. In The Attempt To Measure The Bias Of Predicting Profit Management, Numerous One- Dimensional Measurement Tools Have Been Proposed In The Accounting And Finance Literature. Despite These Efforts, No Comprehensive Composite Index Has Been Developed To Measure Management's Earnings Forecast Bias. Accordingly, The Present Study Seeks To Provide A Comprehensive Composite Index To Measure Management's Earnings Forecast Bias. Therefore, Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Technique (Best - Worst), We Combine Multiple Individual Indices In Accounting And Financial Literature With Expert Opinion Polls And Provide A Comprehensive Index For Measuring Management Profit Forecast Bias. The Findings Show That The Aforementioned Composite Index Includes Criteria Such As Current And Previous Period Management Earnings Forecast Error, Total Accruals Of Current Period And Previous Period, Management Bonus Changes And Changes In Cash Flow From Operational Activities. According To Experts Among These Criteria, The Previous Period Management Is The Worst Criterion, And The Management Bonus Changes Is The Best Measure To Measure Management's Earnings Forecast Bias. Also The Evaluation Of The Obtained Composite Index Shows That It Has Higher Predictive Power Than The Individual Criteria. These Findings Can Be Useful For Investors And Analysts In Making Economic Decisions To Provide A Composite Index.