Use of Operation Research Planning Models to Determine the Optimum Levels of Crude Oil and Gas Production in Iranian Oil and Gas Projects- Case Study: South Pars Project Phases 17 & 18

Determining the optimal level of oil and gas production from the upstream projects of the country is one of the main challenges in the formulation of Master Development Plans (MDP) for petroleum projects and impacts the return on investment and profitability of contracting parties, especially the contractor. In Iran's oil and gas contracts, since the development of the MDP is the responsibility of the Ministry of Petroleum, the production profile of petroleum projects is determined by the National Iranian Oil Company Management and Consolidated Planning Department, based solely on technical geology and submitted to the contractor. The purpose of this research is to introduce and extend the scope of operation research planning models in order to determine the optimum level of crude oil and gas production based on technical, geological and contractual elements in Iranian oil and gas projects. For this purpose, we first review different common models for determining the optimum level of oil and gas production. After identifying their deficiencies, a comprehensive model based on operation research planning procedures is proposed to determine the optimal level of oil and gas production in petroleum projects. The proposed model in this study is a branch of nonlinear dynamic optimization models in which the maximization of the current net present value of each oil and gas project for the target production level is set as the objective function and the technical, technological and contractual factors are considered as constraints. The results of this research show that the use of operation research planning models in determining the level of crude oil and gas production provides reliable results, and facilitates the development of an MDP for the development of oil and gas fields of the country by the MCP department of the NIOC JEL Classification: C61, Q35, K32 Keywords: Optimization, Operation Research, Geological Factors, Technological Factors, IPC, NPV