We propose an hour-ahead prediction model for electricity prices that captures the heavy-tailed behavior that we observe in the hourly spot market in the Ercot (Texas) and the PJM West hub grids. We present a model according to which we separate the price process into a thin-tailed trailing-median process and a heavytailed residual process whose probability distribution can be approximated by a...

We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of historical annual hurricane numbers, and we perform a backtesting study to find the length of averaging window that would have given the best predictions in the past.

The bug-fix time i.e. the time to fix a bug after the bug was introduced is an important factor for bug related analysis, such as measuring software quality or coordinating development effort during bug triaging. Previous work has proposed many bug-fix time prediction models that use various bug attributes (number of developers who participated in fixing the bug, bug severity, bug-opener’s repu...

Rainfall is a primary factor for agricultural production, especially in rainfed region. Its accurate prediction therefore vital planning and managing farmers’ plantations. plays an important role the symmetry of water cycle, many hydrological models use rainfall as one their components. This paper aimed to investigate applicability six machine learning (ML) techniques (i.e., M5 model tree: (M5)...

An "on-line" time series prediction system EFuNN-T based on a model of evolving fuzzy neural network------EFuNN is presented in this paper. EFuNN, as a particular type of evolving fuzzy neural network, evolves both its structure and parameters to accommodate new coming data. EFuNN-T, as an application of EFuNN in the field of time series prediction, performs "one-step" ahead prediction in an "o...

It is well known fact that organizing different predictors in an ensemble increases the accuracy of prediction of the time series. This paper discusses different methods of integration of predictors cooperating in an ensemble. The considered methods include the ordinary averaging, weighted averaging, application of principal component analysis to the data, blind source separation as well as app...

Public charging station occupancy prediction plays key importance in developing a smart strategy to reduce electric vehicle (EV) operator and user inconvenience. However, existing studies are mainly based on conventional econometric or time series methodologies with limited accuracy. We propose new mixed long short-term memory neural network incorporating both historical state sequences time-re...

In the exponential smoothing approach to forecasting, restrictions are often imposed on the smoothing parameters which ensure that certain components are exponentially weighted averages. In this paper, a new general restriction is derived on the basis that the one-step ahead prediction error can be decomposed into permanent and transient components. It is found that this general restriction red...

Menopause, an important reproductive milestone, is associated with complete cessation of fertility. There is considerable individual variation in the age of onset of menopause; its average is 51 years but varies from 40 to 60 years and about 10% of women reach menopause by the age of 45 years (1). Over the past two decades, precise prediction of age at menopause for individual women has attract...