Replication studies are increasingly conducted but there is no established statistical criterion for replication success. We propose a novel approach combining reverse-Bayes analysis with Bayesian hypothesis testing: sceptical prior determined the effect size such that original finding longer convincing in terms of Bayes factor. This then contrasted to an advocacy (the reference posterior based...

We put forward an adaptive \(\alpha \) (type I error) that decreases as the information grows for hypothesis tests comparing nested linear models. A less elaborate adaptation was presented in Pérez and Pericchi (Stat Probab Lett 85:20–24, 2014) general i.i.d. The calibration proposed this paper may be interpreted a Bayes–non-Bayes compromise, of simple translation Bayes factor on frequentist te...

This paper develops the Bayesian model selection based on Bayes factor for a rich class of partially-observed micro-movement models of asset price. We focus on one recursive algorithm to calculate the Bayes factors, first deriving the system of SDEs for them and then applying the Markov chain approximation method to yield a recursive algorithm. We prove the consistency (or robustness) of the re...

Despite clear deficiencies of the p value as a summary of statistical evidence, compelling alternatives with strong theoretical justification, such as the Bayes factor and the related likelihood ratio, are rarely presented in epidemiologic publications. Comparison of the historical performance of the p value with that of its competitors in the epidemiologic literature may help epidemiologists e...

Bayesian inference is usually presented as a method for determining how scientific belief should be modified by data. Although Bayesian methodology has been one of the most active areas of statistical development in the past 20 years, medical researchers have been reluctant to embrace what they perceive as a subjective approach to data analysis. It is little understood that Bayesian methods hav...

The purpose of this paper is to provide an easy template for the inclusion of the Bayes factor in reporting experimental results, particularly as a recommendation for articles in the Journal of Problem Solving. The Bayes factor provides information with a similar purpose to the p-value—to allow the researcher to make statistical inferences from data provided by experiments. While the p-value is...