Multivariate Decomposition for Hazard Rate Models We develop a regression decomposition technique for hazard rate models, where the difference in observed rates is decomposed into components attributable to group differences in characteristics and group differences in effects. The baseline hazard is specified using a piecewise constant exponential model, which leads to convenient estimation bas...

In this paper we develop a two-step survival time approach – a discrete logit model with survival time dummies – that allows for time-varying explanatory variables and interval censored data. Our empirical analysis reveals that the twostep approach outperforms the benchmark logit model with respect to out-ofsample prediction accuracy. Survival time, however, does not play an important role. The...

This study compares the duration of new job matches in the east and west German labour market that formed between the start of the German Economic, Monetary and Social Union in July 1990 and December 2000. The study relies on job duration data drawn from the German Socio-economic Panel. It shows with non-parametric duration methods that job matches are less stable in east than in west Germany. ...

This paper investigates the presence of bull and bear market states in stock price dynamics. A new definition of bull and bear market states based on sequences of stopping times tracing local peaks and troughs in stock prices is proposed. Duration dependence in stock prices is investigated through posterior mode estimates of the hazard function in bull and bear markets. We find that the longer ...

Dependence Measures in Bivariate Gamma Frailty Models Bivariate duration data frequently arise in economics, biostatistics and other areas. In “bivariate frailty models”, dependence between the frailties (i.e., unobserved determinants) induces dependence between the durations. Using notions of quadrant dependence, we study restrictions that this imposes on the implied dependence of the duration...

We study infinite–horizon, optimal switching problems under a general class of stochastic volatility models that exhibit “fast” mean–reversion by using techniques from homogenisation theory. This leads to perturbation theory, providing closed–form approximations to the full switching problem which is often intractable, both analytically and numerically. We apply our general results to certain, ...

The behavioural response with respect to actuarial adjustments in the German public pension system is analysed. The introduction of actuarial adjustments serves as a source of exogenous variation to estimate discrete time transition rates into retirement. The analysis is conducted on administrative data from social security records and on survey data in a comparative scenario. Probability mass ...

We examine job durations of German workers using linked employer–employee data. Our results indicate that exit rates are strongly influenced by firm characteristics. The effects of some of these characteristics, however, are limited to particular job positions or skill groups. There is clear evidence for a sorting process whereby workers with long expected job durations are matched to firms off...

The incidence and duration of work absence spells for a sample of Swedish blue collar workers in 1991 are analyzed using the KaplanMeier estimator, discrete time hazard regression as well as strati ed Cox regression. The main interest is directed towards the e ect of economic incentives. The e ect of a decrease in the replacement level of the compulsory Swedish sickness insurance that took plac...

The Transition from Welfare to Work and the Role of Potential Labor Income It is often argued that the high level of welfare claims in Germany causes little incentive for workers with low productivity to seek for a job. We examine the influence of the ratio between estimated potential labor income and the welfare payment level on the probability of leaving social welfare. Using the GSOEP, we es...