The overconfidence, a well-established bias, in fact leads to unrealistic expectations or faulty assessment. So it remains puzzling why such psychology of self-deception is stabilized in human society. To investigate this problem, we draw lessons from evolutionary game theory which provides a theoretical framework to address the subtleties of cooperation among selfish individuals. Here we propo...

People are often more confident than accurate. Past accounts of this overconfidence effect have focused on social-cognitive mechanisms, such as the biasing effects of judgmental heuristics and the faulty integration of relevant information. The current studies tested the idea that overconfidence is also a product of dissonance reduction. Specifically, we argue that overconfidence can result fro...

Realistic confidence judgments are essential to everyday functioning, but few studies have addressed the issue of age differences in overconfidence. Therefore, the authors examined this issue with probability judgment and intuitive confidence intervals in a sample of 122 healthy adults (ages: 35-40, 55-60, 70-75 years). In line with predictions based on the naïve sampling model (P. Juslin, A. W...

Introduction: Natural products can alleviate oxidative stress induced by toxic metals. This study evaluated antioxidant properties of clove essential oil (CEO), compared to oxidative deterioration of Cd. It was carried out by measuring growth performance parameters (BW, FI, and FCR), oxidative indices (TBARS, CP, CAT, SOD, and GPx), lipid profile (TG, TC, LDL-C, and HDL-C), and Cd bioaccumulati...

We analyze the effects of CEO education on CEO turnover (firing and replacement) and firm performance. Our primary interest is on the role that CEO education plays in a firm’s decision to replace its current CEO, the role that it plays in selecting a new CEO, and on whether CEO education significantly affects performance. We use six main measures of CEO education: whether or not the CEO attende...

This study examined “new CEO dismissal”, i.e., a new CEO is dismissed within three years after succession. Based upon agency theory and human capital theory, we argue that new CEO dismissal may represent a correction to an inappropriate CEO selection and accordingly, succession contexts that tend to lead to an inappropriate CEO selection will increase the likelihood of new CEO dismissal. With a...

Overconfidence has been identified as a source of suboptimal decision making in many real-life domains, with often far-reaching consequences. This study identifies a mechanism that can cause overconfidence and demonstrates a simple, effective countermeasure in an incentive-compatible experimental study. We observed that joy induced overconfidence if the reason for joy (an unexpected gift) was u...

Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathema...

The present research addresses whether narcissists are more overconfident than others and whether this overconfidence leads to deficits in decision making. In Study 1, narcissism predicted overconfidence. This was attributable to narcissists’ greater confidence despite no greater accuracy. In Study 2, participants were offered fair bets on their answers. Narcissists lost significantly more poin...

In this paper, we investigate the effect of overconfidence and gender on trading activity in experimental asset markets under a symmetric information setting. We measure the degree of overconfidence in three forms—miscalibration, a better-than-average effect, and the illusion of control, and design two treatments (Ambiguity and Risk) that differ by the prior information available about the dist...