Cointegration has different theoretical implications for forecasting. Several empirical studies have compared the out of sample forecasting performance of cointegrted VECMs against unrestricted VARs in levels and in differences. The results of these studies have been generally mixed and inconclusive. This paper provides a comprehensive review over the subject, and also examines the effects...

Abstract T his study aimed to examine the Islamic stock market integration between Indonesia and Malaysia, and the effect of foreign interest rates on both stock markets. This study used the monthly time series of Jakarta Islamic Index, Hijrah Syariah Index, and foreign interest rates within a period from August 2000 to January 2016. Result of cointegration test demonstrat...

This study examines how much of the variance in economic growth can be explained by various categories of domestic and foreign savings in Malaysia. The bounds testing approach to cointegration and the generalised forecast error variance decomposition technique was used to achieve the objective of this study. The cointegration test results demonstrate that the relationship between economic growt...

This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and tourism development in seven Mediterranean countries. The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the long-run relationship between economic growth and tourism development in a multivariate model with tourism real receipts per capita, the number of international tourist arrivals per capita; real effective exchange rate...

This paper investigates the relationship between consumer credits and interest rates in Turkey based on the fractional cointegration approach by using daily observations over the period from 4 January 2002 to 24 December 2010. First, we ignore the possible structural breaks in the series and perform the Geweke and Porter-Hudak (GPH) test on the residuals for fractional cointegration. Second, we...

This paper examines several US monthly financial time series data using fractional integration and cointegration techniques. The univariate analysis based on fractional integration aims to determine whether the series are I(1) (in which case markets might be efficient) or alternatively I(d) with d < 1, which implies mean reversion. The multivariate framework exploiting recent developments in fr...