Although severe thunderstorms are one of the primary causes of catastrophic loss in the United States, their response to elevated greenhouse forcing has remained a prominent source of uncertainty for climate change impacts assessment. We find that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5, global climate model ensemble indicates robust increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm...

The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) system is enhanced to include the analysis of radar-derived refractivity measurements. These refractivity data are most sensitive to atmospheric moisture content and provide high-resolution information on near-surface moisture that is important to convective initiation (CI) and precipitation forecasting. Observ...

One possible fate of an accreting white dwarf is explosion in a type Ia supernova. However, the route to the thermonuclear runaway has always been uncertain owing to the lack of a convective model consistent with the Urca process. We derive a formalism for convective motions involving two radial flows. This formalism provides a framework for convective models that guarantees self-consistency fo...

This note updates a previous study that utilized a baseline climatology of soundings associated with large hail, significant tornadoes, and 10 or more cloud-to-ground lightning flashes from 1992. Expanding on the earlier analysis, it is shown that three modified forecast parameters have more value in distinguishing between environments that favor significant tornadoes and those that favor large...

A thermodynamics of open systems has been developed which provides an entirely new theoretical framework based on novel concepts without any recourse to statistical mechanics, The standard chemical potential is replaced by a convective potential itself derived from a new concept referred to as the “thermobaric potential”. Entropy convected by addition of masses into an open system is obtained u...