Unemployment in the OECD: Models and Mysteries This paper compares models used to explain OECD unemployment. The models suggest that the “natural rate of unemployment” has been driven up mainly by wage push factors. Panel data on twenty-two OECD countries are used to investigate the explanatory power of these models over the past two decades. Our estimates reveal that coefficients on key variab...

This paper extends the literature on productivity spillovers from inward FDI. We use comparable industry level data for 17 OECD countries and investigate the importance of horizontal and vertical spillovers, and differences between CEEC and other OECD countries. Results show that there is evidence for spillovers through vertical backward linkages between multinationals and domestic firms for al...

This paper uses yearly panel data on OECD countries to analyze the relationship between growth and the cyclicality of government debt. We develop new time-varying estimates of the cyclicality of public debt. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (i) less procyclical public debt growth can have significantly positive effects on productivity growth, in particular when financial developm...

As countries implement stricter environmental policies, the need for tools to compare countries’ policy stringency is becoming more pressing. The OECD Environmental Policy Stringency (EPS) index has become a widely used tool analysis since its creation in 2014. This paper updates EPS over three decades from 1990 2020, across 40 and 13 instruments, focussing on climate change air pollution mitig...

Do Tertiary Dropout Students Really Not Succeed in European Labour Markets? Tertiary education has been expanding hugely over the last decades, so that tertiary dropout students will constitute a growing distinctive group in future labour markets. University dropout is regularly discussed as a ‘negative’ indicator in terms of reinforcing socio-economic inequalities and being a sign of universit...

Dramatic world change has stimulated interest in research questions about the dynamics of politics. We have seen increases in the number of time series data sets and the length of typical time series. But three shortcomings are prevalent in published time series analysis. First, analysts often estimate models without testing restrictions implied by their specification. Second, researchers link ...

This paper uses yearly panel data on OECD countries to analyze the relationship between growth and the cyclicality of government debt. We develop new time-varying estimates of the cyclicality of public debt. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (i) less procyclical public debt growth can have significantly positive effects on productivity growth, in particular when financial developm...

A core mechanism of unified growth theory is that accelerating technological progress induces mass education and, through interaction with child quantity‐quality substitution, a decline in fertility. Using unique new data for 21 OECD countries over the period 1750–2000, we test, first time, validity this theory. We measure country's as patents per capita, R&D intensity, and investment machi...

We estimate productivities at the sector level for 72 countries and 5 decades, and examine how they evolve over time in both developed and developing countries. In both country groups, comparative advantage has become weaker: productivity grew systematically faster in sectors that were initially at greater comparative disadvantage. These changes have had a significant impact on trade volumes an...

Understanding and considering the distribution of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is important in designing international climate change proposals and incentives for participation. I evaluate historic international emissions distributions and forecast future distributions to assess whether per capita emissions have been converging or will converge. I find evidence of convergence among...