Fully rational agents are allowed to optimize over expectations formation technologies in an environment where it is costly to collect and process information. It is shown in a general equilibrium framework that optimization over expectations by rational and forward oriented agents can lead to endogenous instability. Specifically, we illustrate that resulting equilibria can be both chaotic and ...

This paper develops a decision support tool using an A2 method and data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach (A2-DEA). This new method is applied for the bank credit customer selection problem and credit scoring as a pilot survey at Export Development Bank of Iran. The proposed method has led to fewer calculations, faster and more accurate decision making, less complexity, and ability to ana...

This paper investigates the mechanism through which short selling of a bank’s stocks can trigger the failure of the bank. In the model, creditors, who learn information from stock prices, will grow increasingly unsure about the bank’s true fundamentals in facing noisier stock prices; thus a run on the bank is more likely because of creditors’ concave payo¤. Understanding this, speculators condu...

Mispricing (the difference between prices and their underlying fundamental values) is an important characteristic of markets. The literature on the topic consists of many different measures. This state of affairs is unsatisfactory, since different measures may produce different results. Stöckl et al. (2010) partially address this problem by proposing (among other things) that measures of mispri...

This study explores how trading constraints such as borrowing and short-sale constraints affect asset prices in the presence of asymmetric information. In a symmetric information environment, borrowing and short-sale constraints exacerbate downward and upward price movements, respectively. However, in the presence of information asymmetry, the price impact of each constraint is different. In an...

Article history: Received 16 November 2009 Received in revised form 12 August 2010 Accepted 20 August 2010 Available online 21 October 2010 JEL classification: C72 C92 D80 D84

We explore two popular approaches to empirical analysis of monetary policy: the New Keynesian and the identified vector autoregression approaches. Stylized models of private behavior coupled with simple rules describing policy behavior characterize New Keynesian work. Vector autoregressions consist of minimally identified dynamic descriptions of private behavior coupled with a detailed rule for...

K e y w o r d s: prediction, model comparison, density forecasting, inflation, VAR models, shrinkage. J E L Classification: E31, E37, C53, C32.

Rational herd behavior and informationally efficient security prices have long been considered to be mutually exclusive but for exceptional cases. In this paper we describe conditions on the underlying information structure that are necessary and sufficient for informational herding. Employing a standard sequential security trading model, we argue that people may be subject to herding if and on...