In this work, we developed a theoretical framework leading to misclassification of the final size epidemic data for stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Removed), household model, with false negative and positive misclassification probabilities. Maximum likelihood based algorithm is then employed its inference. We then analyzed compared estimates the two dimensional model those three four...

SUMMARY The productivity of a magnitude m event can be characterized in term triggered events above − Δ: it is the number direct ‘descendants’ $\nu _\Delta$ and all $V_\Delta$. There evidence favour discrete exponential distribution for both $V_\Delta$ with dominant initial (the case aftershock cluster). We consider general Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model adapted to any _\Delta$. Our fi...

Epidemic progression depends on the structure of population. We study a two-group epidemic model with difference between groups determined by rate disease transmission. The basic reproduction number, maximal and total number infected individuals are characterized proportion groups. consider different vaccination strategies determine outcome campaign depending distribution vaccinated

Dr. J. F. J. Sykes, in his interesting " Public Health Problems pointed out that in the ancient world, flight was the only resort in the presence of epidemic disease, and that to this fact may be ascribed the depopulation, ruin, and disappearance of many cities of antiquity. Approaching more modern times, the spirit of combating rather than fleeling from infection appeared, and it assumed the f...

We present a stochastic methodology to study the decay phase of an epidemic. It is based on a general stochastic epidemic process with memory, suitable to model the spread in a large open population with births of any rare transmissible disease with a random incubation period and a Reed-Frost type infection. This model, which belongs to the class of multitype branching processes in discrete tim...

In this article we present a space–time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for the area of Hungary, motivated by goal its application in insurance risk models. High-quality recent instrumental data from period 1996–2021 are used parameterization, including nearby Zagreb and Petrinja event sequences. earthquake-triggering equations our ETAS model, replace commonly modified Omori law ...