As a result of debt enforcement problems, many high-productivity firms in emerging economies are unable to pledge enough future profits to their creditors and this constrains the financing they can raise. Many have argued that, by relaxing these credit constraints, reforms that strengthen enforcement institutions would increase capital flows to emerging economies. This argument is based on a pa...

We present new evidence that numerous US industries are exposed to exchange rates. The di erences between our ndings and those in the extant literature are a result of using a new methodological approach which takes account of exchange rate regimes based on periods of depreciation and appreciation. Within each regime we show that rst, the stock market's own exposure to exchange rates should be ...

Asian economic regionalism has emerged from a bottom-up process, driven by market forces in the absence of a grand plan for regional integration. While the financial crisis of 1997–98 triggered new regional cooperation initiatives, more recently several Asian political leaders have formulated proposals for the creation of a regional economic community, suggesting the possible start of a top-dow...

Evidence on international capital ‡ows suggests that foreign direct investment (FDI) is less volatile than other ...nancial ‡ows. To explain this ...nding, I model international capital ‡ows under the assumptions of imperfect enforcement of ...nancial contracts and inalienability of FDI. Imperfect enforcement of contracts leads to endogenous ...nancing constraints and the pricing of default ris...

If there are benefits to international risk sharing, consumption growth variability should decrease following the liberalization of the equity market. In addition, markets with open equity markets should display lower consumption growth variability than closed markets, everything else equal. However, the recent literature on financial liberalization suggests that volatile capital flows lead to ...

There are two leading views on how financial crises turn into recessions. The first view highlights the importance of a troubled banking sector that cannot provide credit to domestic firms. The second view stresses the relevance of short-term borrowing in foreign currency and the associated decline in net worth through a weak balance sheet. Both views underline the role of financial constraints...

When a certain procedure is applied to extract two component processes from a single observed process, it is necessary to impose a set of restrictions that defines two components. One popular restriction is the assumption that the shocks to the trend and cycle are orthogonal. Another is the assumption that the trend is a pure random walk process. The unobserved components (UC) model (Harvey, 19...

Sudden stops, or large reversals in capital inflows, have been linked to a number of financial crises in emerging market countries. Given their potentially devastating consequences, academics and policymakers have placed great emphasis on analyzing the causes of financial vulnerability. This task has become even more important with increasing financial globalization. A large literature has deve...

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy rules in a monetary union. The focus of the analysis is on the interaction between the fiscal policy of member countries (regions) and the central monetary authority. When capital markets are integrated, the fiscal policy of one country will influence equilibrium wages and interest rates. Thus there are fiscal spillovers within a federation. The...

This paper investigates stock-bond portfolios’tail risks such as value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES), and the way in which these measures have been a¤ected by the global …nancial crisis. The semiparametric t-copula is found to be adequate for modelling stock-bond joint distributions of G7 countries and Australia. Empirical results show that weak (negative) dependence has increased f...