A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (k) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016...

This paper contributes to the literature on aid and economic growth. We posit that it is not the level of aid flows per se but the stability of such flows that determines the impact of aid on economic growth. Three measures of aid instability are employed. One is a simple deviation from trend, and measures overall instability. The other measures are based on auto-regressive estimates to capture...

Model uncertainty hampers consensus on the key determinants of economic growth. Some recent cross-country cross-sectional analyses have employed Bayesian Model Averaging to tackle the issue of model uncertainty. This paper extends that approach to panel data models with countryspecific fixed effects in order to simultaneously address model uncertainty and endogeneity issues. The empirical findi...

foreign trade of any country is considered as one of the major economic sectors of that society as far as some refer to trade as the “engine of growth”. foreign exchange rate and its volatilities is one of the effective factors determining foreign trade. the present paper deals with the impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on imports in iran during 1979-2009. in this respect, first, among v...

in recent years, wind energy has a remarkable growth in the world, but one of the important problems of power generated from wind is its uncertainty and corresponding power. for solving this problem, some approaches have been presented. recently, the artificial neural networks (ann) as a heuristic method has more applications for this propose. in this paper, short-term (1 hour) and mid-term (24...

We use matched point and density forecasts of output growth and inflation from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to derive measures of forecast uncertainty, forecast dispersion and forecast accuracy. We construct uncertainty measures from aggregate density functions as well as from individual histograms. The uncertainty measures display countercyclical behavior, and there is evidence o...

I analyze the marginal value of reducing greenhouse gas emissions (the “social cost of carbon”) under uncertainty about warming, under uncertainty about how much warming reduces consumption, and under stochastic shocks to consumption growth. I theoretically demonstrate that each of these sources of uncertainty increases the social cost of carbon under conventional preferences. In a calibrated n...

the environmental rules of reverse logistic networks have caused important economic growth in the past decades. to integrate forward logistic networks with reverse logistics networks a helpful method is to design both networks simultaneously. considering more retrieval choices in modeling reverse logistic systems can be very critical. this article contains a mixed integer linear programming mod...

ing from the statistical detail of these changes, the cautionary implication for policy-makers is clear: to the extent that inputs like the economy’s growth rate are used in the policy formation process, the substantial inherent uncertainty surrounding such data needs to be recognised. This uncertainty complicates the task of responding to the ‘true’ state of the economy, and suggests the dange...