This paper examines the effect of fiscal instability component on fluctuation in welfare indicator for 45 years. Descriptive statistics reveals that and real GDP per capital are largely unstable Hodrick-Prescott filter (HPF) is employed as a smoothing measure long-term component. lesser government revenue had been committed to development purposes compared with recurrent expenditure since begin...

Just like any other economic field, housing market has two basic foundations which are demand and supply. Its obvious that disequilibrum between these foundations, will drasticaly affect the housing affordability and can also lead to wide slump in many markets. That’s why, policy makers usually intend to stimulat the supply by means of providing low intrest loans, low priced land, etc. In this ...

Due to the importance of bearings in modern machinery, prediction remaining useful life (RUL) rolling has been widely studied. When predicting RUL engineering practice, is usually predicted based on historical data, and as data increases, results should be more accurate. However, existing methods have shortcomings low accuracy, large cumulative error failure dynamically give with increase which...

This paper proposes a structure for long-term energy demand forecasting. The proposed hybrid approach, called HPLLNF, uses the local linear neuro-fuzzy (LLNF) model as the forecaster and utilizes the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter for extraction of the trend and cyclic components of the energy demand series. Besides, the sophisticated technique of mutual information (MI) is employed to select the...

Filters used to estimate unobserved components in time series are often designed on a priori grounds, so as to capture the frequencies associated with the component. A limitation of these filters is that they may yield spurious results. The danger can be avoided if the so-called ARIMA-model-based (AMB) procedure is used to derive the filter. However, parsimony of ARIMA models typically implies ...

This paper first generalizes the trend-cycle decomposition framework of Perron and Wada (2005) based on an unobserved components models with innovations having a mixtures of Normals distribution, which is able to handle sudden level and slope changes to the trend function as well as outliers. We investigate how important are the differences in the implied trend and cycle compared to the popular...

Concurrent research documents sizeable changes in the volatility of U.S. macroeconomic time series; e.g., see Kim and Nelson (1999), McConnell and Pérez-Quirós (2000), Stock and Watson (2002), and Sensier and van Dijk (2004). Most of the evidence from this literature suggests a sizeable reduction in volatility for many series; many of them used to construct business cycle indicators. With the e...