The paper researches on the inflation level forecasting for China and the United States in one kind of univariate and three kinds of bivariate cases, using Vector Autoregressive and Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models, based on the rolling-sample forecasts and the mean absolute percentage error standard. Empirical tests show that, both China and the United States’ inflation level series are s...

There is widespread agreement that price stability (in practice, low and stable inflation) should be an objective of monetary policy. This agreement is reflected both in the mandates set for monetary policy by governments and in the practice of central banks. Several other important questions about the objectives for monetary policy are less settled: Should there be other objectives? If there a...

An important input to monetary policymaking is estimating the current level of inflation. This paper examines empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to construct indexes akin to core inflation but with a time-varying distributed lags of weights, where the sectoral weight depends on the timevarying volatility and p...

I reestimate a learning-from-experience model using survey reported inflation expectations and confirm that personal inflation experiences strongly predict inflation expectations. I use the model to study the effect of demographics and history on aggregate inflation expectations. Demographic shocks exert little effect on aggregate inflation expectations and population aging does not explain bet...

We propose a new approach to measuring long-run inflation risk, the inflation risk premium, and inflation expectations for the UK over the period 1985–2012. By adding long-term bond futures to the information set of inflation-indexed and nominal bonds, inflation risk is measured as an incremental time-varying covariance obtained from a trivariate GARCH model with dynamic conditional correlation...

this paper tries to survey and estimate non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (nairu) and potential output. it uses the unobserved components model to propose a new method. the model consists of ukan law equations and philips curve. it uses unobservable key economic variable in the form of unobserved random trends in an equation system of three variables namely unemployment, gross dom...

A growing number of countries have anchored their monetary policy to an explicit numerical rate or range of inflation since such an inflation targeting framework was first adopted by New Zealand in 1989. This paper empirically investigates issues associated with inflation targeting using a dataset of 66 countries for the 1980–2000 period. The paper focuses on two issues. First, which factors ar...

This paper provides a review of the concept of core inflation and evaluates the performance of several proposed measures. We first consider the rationale of a central bank in setting its inflation goal in terms of a selected rate of consumer price growth and the use of a core inflation measure as a means of achieving this long-term policy objective. We then discuss desired attributes of a core ...

Brane inflation and the production of topological defects at the end of the inflationary phase are discussed. After a description of the inflationary setup we discuss the properties of the cosmic strings produced at the end of inflation. Specific examples of brane inflation are described: D − ¯ D inflation, D3/D7 inflation and modular inflation.