Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which professional forecasters exhibit conservatism in their announced inflation forecasts. Conservatism occurs as a result of a secondary objective captured in the forecaster’s loss function: they would like to avoid having large forecast errors, but also would like to avoid making large revisions to previously announced forecasts. As a result of for...

We analyse the impact of interest-bearing central bank bills on financial market variables in Switzerland. The unique institutional setting allows us to identify causal effects two orthogonal shocks occurring days with bill auctions through heteroscedasticity: an overnight interest rate shock and a signalling shock. first raises modestly appreciates exchange rate. more strongly. In addition, it...

inflation has always been an economic problem and different solutions have been proposed to control it. although it is said that “higher output lowers inflation rate” but it is true when other factors are constant. this study searches the answer to the following question: “what is the effect of inflation rate and output in a case that inflation rate and output growth has a volatility trend?” to...

We develop a regime-switching SVAR (structural vector autoregression) in which the monetary policy regime, chosen by the central bank responding to economic conditions, is endogenous and observable. QE (quantitative easing) is one such regime. The model incorporates the exit condition for terminating QE. We apply it to Japan, a country that has experienced three QE spells. Our impulse response ...

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is common in men. Many of these infections are transient and clinically insignificant, but persistent infection with HPV types 6 and 11 can lead to genital warts, and oncogenic types 16 and 18 may lead to some head and neck, anal, or penile cancers. The incidence of each of these cancers has increased worldwide in the past two decades, and HPV causes 5% of a...

The aim of this study is to examine the nonlinear effects of fiscal and monetary policies on inflation during 1990:3 to 2013:1 based on threshold model. First lag of the liquidity growth is recognized as threshold variable with threshold value estimated at 6.37 percent. In low liquidity growth, the results indicate that inflation expectations and the lagged liquidity growth are the most importa...

IHPBI is an early indicator in consumer price analysis. When the increases, it results inflation. inflation occurs, Indonesia's economic stability begins to be disturbed, so order suppress inflation, government raises interest rates and when circulation of money decrease, prices goods services will return normal. This research see next 3 years through ARFIMA method multi-input intervention with...

Abstract: Inflation targeting (IT) has recently become a popular monetary policy tool to fight inflation in advanced as well as emerging market economies. IT is assumed to curtail inflationary expectations; aiding monetary authorities implement disinflationary policies. The evidence toward IT’s role in anchoring expectations in practice can be at best described as mixed, if not confusing. In th...