in this paper, we have examined abrupt changes in volatility of tepix index in tehran stock exchange during august 23, 2010 to june 12, 2014. applying the iterated cumulative sum of squares (icss) algorithm proposed by inclan and tiao (1994) and the modified version of this algorithm consisting kappa 1 and kappa 2 test statistics developed by sansó et al. (2004), we have specified that the dete...

The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which ...

In our project we have used parametric simulation and filtered historical simulation by GARCH processes to model the future position on a portfolio of some actively trading S&P bonds and related credit default swaps. The portfolio is marked to market daily based on the daily prices and CDS spreads over a seven year period. The Credit default swaps are priced daily based on the shifts in the def...

In Europe, Germany is taking the lead in the switch from the conventional to renewable energy. This poses new challenges as wind and solar energy are fundamentally intermittent, weather-dependent and less predictable. It is therefore of considerable interest to investigate the evolution of price volatility in this post-transition era. There are a number of reasons, however, that makes the pract...

Countries with strong executive constraints have lower growth volatility but similar average growth to those with weak constraints. This paper argues that this may explain a strong reduced-form correlation between executive constraints and in‡ows of foreign investment. It uses a a novel dataset of Dutch sectorlevel investments between 1983 and 2012 to explore this issue. It formulates an econom...

this paper investigates empirically the effect of volatility of the exchange rate of the u.s. dollar vis-à-vis the euro on u.s. stock market volatility while controlling for a number of drivers of stock return volatility. using a garch(1, 1) model and using weekly data covering the period from the week of january 1, 1999 through the week of january 25, 2010, it is found that the 9/11 terrorist ...

This paper investigates the evolution of monetary policy in the U.S. using a standard set of macroeconomic variables. Many recent papers have addressed the issue of whether the monetary transmission mechanism has changed (e.g. due to the Fed taking a more aggressive stance against in‡ation) or whether apparent changes are simply due to changes in the volatility of exogenous shocks. A subsidiary...