Recent financial research has provided evidence on the predictability of asset returns. In this paper we consider the results contained in Pesaran-Timmerman(1995), which provided evidence on predictability over the sample 1959-1992. We show that the extension of the sample to the nineties weakens considerably the statistical and economic significance of the predictability of stock returns based...

abstract in current study, an irrigation examination and acquisition of environmental water in kor-river fields, that is dominated from doroudzan dam to bakhtegan lake, was done by an integrated economy-environmental model. the model was considered by economic, hydrologic and agronomic components. in the economic component, an optimal harvesting of water was done using non-linear programming in...

Motivated by the success of internal habit formation preferences in explaining asset pricing puzzles, we introduce these preferences in a life-cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice with liquidity constraints, undiversifiable labor income risk and stock-market participation costs. In contrast to the initial motivation, we find that the model is not able to simultaneously match two very...

The stock market participation rate for U.S. households with assets in both taxable and tax-deferred accounts is increasing with age in taxable accounts and decreasing with age in tax-deferred accounts. This paper asks whether a quantitative life-cycle model of portfolio choice can match these life-cycle patterns of stock market participation. The model incorporates several key features into a ...

Safe and liquid assets, such as Treasury bonds, are money-like instruments that command a convenience yield. We analyze this in a search model of two assets that differ in liquidity and safety. In contrast to the reduced-form approach, which puts the safe and liquid asset in utility function, we explicitly model investors’ trading needs and the trading friction. One new insight from this approa...

I analyze the optimal intertemporal portfolio problem of an investor who worries about model misspecification and insists on robust decision rules when facing a mean-reverting risk premium. The desire for robustness lowers the total equity share, but increases the proportion of the intertemporal hedging demand. I present a methodology for calculation of detection-error probabilities, which is b...

The classical APT model is of the form j j j j EI I r E r ε β + − = − ) ( ) ( , where ) ( j j r E r − is the earning deviation (called basic variance-profit) of the security I j, is a common factor. This paper considers the impact on the securities return caused by the skewness and kurtosis of the stock returns distributions, and poses a re-modified the arbitrage pricing model as follows j j j ...

We develop a continuous-time regime-switching model for the term structure of interest rates, in which the spot rate follows the Taylor rule, and government bonds at different maturities are priced by no-arbitrage. We allow the coefficients of the Taylor rule and the dynamics of inflation and output gap to be regime-dependent. We estimate the model using government bond yields and find that the...

Several empirical studies have documented that the signs of excess stock returns are, to some extent, predictable. In this paper, we consider the predictive ability of the binary dependent dynamic probit model in predicting the direction of monthly excess stock returns. The recession forecast obtained from the model for a binary recession indicator appears to be the most useful predictive varia...

We examine the impact of adding a value-at-risk (VaR) constraint to the problem of an active manager who seeks to outperform a benchmark while minimizing tracking error variance (TEV) by using the model of Roll [1992. A mean/variance analysis of tracking error. Journal of Portfolio Management 18, 13–22]. We obtain three main results. First, portfolios on the constrained mean-TEV boundary still ...