The two-parameter exponential distribution can often be used to describe the lifetime of products for example, electronic components, engines and so on. This paper considers a prediction problem arising in the life test of key parts in high speed trains. Employing the Bayes method, a joint prior is used to describe the variability of the parameters but the form of the prior is not specified and...

Prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of critical components is a non-trivial task for industrial applications. RUL can differ for similar components operating under the same conditions. Working with such problem, one needs to contend with many uncertainty sources such as system, model and sensory noise. To do that, proposed models should include such uncertainties and represent the bel...

Artificial Life provides the opportunity to study the emergence and evolution of simple ecosystems in real time. We give an overview of the advantages and limitations of such an approach, as well as its relation to individualbased modeling techniques. The Digital Life system Avida is introduced and prospects for experiments with ab initio evolution (evolution “from scratch”), maintenance, as we...

Increasing use of aluminum shape castings in automotive and aerospace industries has drawn great attention to fatigue properties of cast aluminum components. The fatigue resistance of aluminum castings strongly depends upon the presence of casting flaws and characteristics of microstructural constituents. The existence of casting flaws significantly reduces fatigue crack initiation life. In the...

This paper investigates the use of the inverse first-order reliability method (inverseFORM) to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) of aerospace components. The prediction of remaining useful life is an integral part of system health prognosis, and directly helps in online health monitoring and decision-making. However, the prediction of remaining useful life is affected ...

The prediction of outstanding loss liabilities for a non-life run-o -portfolio as well as the quanti cation of the prediction error is one of the most important actuarial tasks in non-life insurance. In this paper we consider this prediction problem in a multivariate context. More precisely, we derive the predictive distribution of the claims reserves simultaneously for several correlated run-o...

A method of on-line residual life prediction is proposed for condition based maintenance of industrial equipment. With on-line monitoring of condition of the industrial equipment, the residual life is evaluated by using on-line prediction of the equipment deterioration. The deterioration prediction is based on an on-line identification of the mathematical model of deterioration process. To impr...