inflation has always been an economic problem and different solutions have been proposed to control it. although it is said that “higher output lowers inflation rate” but it is true when other factors are constant. this study searches the answer to the following question: “what is the effect of inflation rate and output in a case that inflation rate and output growth has a volatility trend?” to...

F orecasting the volatility of a financial asset has wide implications in finance. Conditional variance extracted from the GARCH framework could be a suitable proxy of financial asset volatility. Option pricing, portfolio optimization, and risk management are examples of implications of conditional variance forecasting. One of the most recent methods of volatility forecasting is Real...

Bumper crops have quickly turned the corn and soybean price boom into a bust. Newcrop corn and soybean futures contracts are down 40 percent and 35 percent respectively in just a few short months. Of course, those farmers that had the foresight to lock in at high prices are completely unaffected by the drop in price. For them, market volatility has created profit opportunities. But all is not l...

Purpose – Banks are the major suppliers of external funds for companies in China. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether Chinese banks exercise effective monitoring over borrowers in two lending decisions, including loan interest rates and loan renewals. Design/methodology/approach – Using a sample of Chinese public industrial firms from 2000 to 2005, the authors perform multivariate r...

We explore information spillovers and cross monitoring between the stock and loan markets. To break simultaneity between the stock and loan markets, we use a regulatory experiment, Regulation SHO, that relaxes short selling constraints for a randomly selected sample of Russell3000 stocks, which directly affects information production and monitoring by short sellers in the stock market but is ex...

Background In consumer lending, portfolio managers typically have access to a scorecard used to forecast default probability for each applicant. Scorecards are built using historical data on loan accounts and their respective performance data. The inputs into the scorecard include financial, demographic and other personal information about each applicant. The output of the scorecard is a real-v...

A lthough fair lending laws mandate that all loan applicants receive equal treatment, all of the evidence reveals wide disparities in origi-nation outcomes between white and minority loan applicants. Some of these differences are attributable to income and wealth differences between minorities and whites. Rigorous statistical analysis, however, continues to find loan denial disparities between ...

This paper uses 2973 loan profile records of 2810 poor households who have taken these loans from different quasi-formal sources of which about 50 percent of the loan taken is supplied by the Ultra-poor oriented program designed by PKSF. The objective of this program was to create some income source for these Ultra-poor through credit support. But diversion of loan use from the proposed IGA to ...

Using data from two freshmen cohorts at a public research university (N = 3,730), this study examines the relationship between loan aid and second-year enrollment persistence. Applying a counterfactual analytical framework that relies on propensity score (PS) weighing and matching to address selection bias associated with treatment status, the study estimates that loan aid exerts a significant ...