This paper shows that in a buffer stock saving model, wealth-to-income and other interesting variables have unique stable invariant distributions. Previously this ergodic property has only been conjectured and demonstrated numerically by means of simulations. The proof proceeds by extending earlier results about the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic distribution to Markov processes on non-...

When volatility feedback is taken into account, there is strong evidence of a positive tradeoff between stock market volatility and expected returns on a market portfolio. In this paper, we ask whether this intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return is responsible for the reported evidence of mean reversion in stock prices. There are two relevant findings. First, price movements not related...

This paper examines empirically whether nonlinearities play a significant role in the modeling of the carbon price. We highlight the limits of previous carbon markets analyses based essentially on a linear econometric framework. Instead, we propose to revisit the main results on carbon pricing and the inter-relationships with energy markets and CERs based on nonlinear techniques (threshold vect...

The purpose of the paper is to test empirically the existence of an environmental Kuznets Ž . curve EKC , using switching regime models along with cross-sectional data and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to perform the computations. The models are based on the normal and Student’s t distributions. These methods allow us to present exact, finitesample posterior distributions of switchi...

We derive forecasts for Markov switching models that are optimal in the MSFE sense by means of weighting observations. We provide analytic expressions of the weights conditional on the Markov states and conditional on state probabilities. This allows us to study the e↵ect of uncertainty around states on forecasts. It emerges that, even in large samples, forecasting performance increases substan...

This paper offers new insights into the nature of exchange rate pass through modelling in the context of a Markov regime-switching environment. Using New Zealand data, the results indicate that pass through to import prices resulting from fluctuations in the exchange rate or exporter costs can be characterised as regime-specific. Furthermore, there is evidence that the probability of switching ...

This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to estimate a common trends model in which the growth rate of the common stochastic trend is subject to regime shifts. By applying the Gibbs sampler we can draw from the conditional posterior distributions and evaluation of the nontrivial likelihood function is avoided. Examples with simulated and real data demonstrate the practicality and e ciency of the...

This paper explores seven international stock markets (DJIA, Euro STOXX 600, Russell 2000, Nikkei, NASDAQ, FTSE, Global Dow) in the quest for jumps and regime-switches. The methodological framework borrows from the Markov-switching approach and the stochastic modelling literature based on Lévy processes. The econometric procedure is detailed in a twostep fashion. The dataset covers the period f...

We examine the properties of several residual-based cointegration tests when long run parameters are subject to multiple shifts driven by an unobservable Markov process. Unlike earlier work, which considered one-o¤ deterministic breaks, our approach has the advantage of allowing for an unspeci…ed number of stochastic breaks. We illustrate this issue by exploring the possibility of Markov switch...