In order to select a good hypothesis language (or model) from a collection of possible models, one has to assess the generalization performance of the hypothesis which is returned by a learner that is bound to use some particular model. This paper deals with a new and very eecient way of assessing this generalization performance. We present a new analysis which characterizes the expected genera...

achieving optimal production cycle time for improving manufacturing processes is one of the common problems in production planning. during recent years, different approaches have been developed for solving this problem, but most of them assume that mean quality characteristic is constant over production run length and sets it on customer’s target value. however, the process mean may drift from ...

This study shows the usefulness of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in maintenance planning and man-agement. An ANN model based on the multi-layer perceptron having three hidden layers and four processing elements per layer was built to predict the expected downtime resulting from a breakdown or a maintenance activity. The model achieved an accuracy of over 70% in predicting the expected downtime.

In the current study, the kinetics of asphaltene particle flocculation is investigated under a shear flow through numerical simulation. The discrete element method (DEM) is coupled with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to model the agglomeration and fragmentation processes. In addition, a coalescence model is proposed to consider the attachment of colliding particles. The changes in mean asph...

This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the only tail risk measure that satisfies a set of economic axioms for the Choquet expected utility and the statistical property of elicitability (i.e. there exist...

The subjective expected utility (SEU) model rests on very strong assumptions about the consistency of decision making across a wide range of situations. The descriptive validity of these assumptions has been extensively challenged by behavioral psychologists during the last few decades, and the normative validity of the assumptions has also been reappraised by many statisticians, philosophers, ...

Consider the problem of comparing parametric models M 1 ; : : : ; M k , when at least one of the models has an improper prior N i (i). Using the Bayes factor for comparing among these is not feasible due to arbitrary multiplicative constants in N (i). In this work we suggest adjusting the initial priors for each model, N i , by i (i) = Z N i (i jy)m (y)dy where m is a suitable predictive measur...

In this paper we develop an asset allocation model which allocates assets by maximising expected return subject to the constraint that the expected maximum loss should meet the Value-at-Risk limits set by the risk manager. Similar to the mean-variance approach a performance index like the Sharpe index is constructed. Furthermore it is shown that the model nests the mean-variance approach in cas...

Independent risks are substitutes if the opportunity to invest in one risk cuts down the demand in the others. Intuition seems to sustain this idea, but if the problem is tackled in a normative framework, no consensus in the literature is found. In this paper we investigate what does happen if the decision rule is based on the Generalized Sharpe Ratio. The answer depends on the risk measure und...