Long-term comovements of national stock markets in three EMS (European Monetary System) countries—France, Germany and Italy—are examined. The EMS stock markets are found to display long-term comovements governed by two common permanent components. To identify some interpretable sources of such long-term market comovements, the study explores whether they can be linked to similar comovements in ...

This section describes a simplified version of the dynamic IS − LM model in Blanchard (1981), that extends this elementary macroeconomic scheme along two dimensions: (i) by considering dynamics, and (ii) by enlarging the set of financial markets beyond the traditional "money" and "bonds". In the model below, the latter extension is limited to the stock market. Stock prices have a forward-lookin...

Stock trading is an important decision-making problem that involves both stock selection and asset management. Though many promising results have been reported for predicting prices, selecting stocks, and managing assets using machine-learning techniques, considering all of them is challenging because of their complexity. In this paper, we present a new stock trading method that incorporates dy...

Factors affecting stock prices have been studied by many scholars on different markets. However, the number of empirical studies applying technical analysis indicators to measure investor sentiment is quite limited. To explore this interesting topic, study uses Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator an investor's various thresholds and test its effect excess return Vietnam market. Data series includi...

This paper examines the long-term as well as short-term equilibrium relationships between the major stock indices and selected macroeconomic variables (such as money supply and interest rate) of Singapore and the United States by employing the advanced time series analysis techniques that include cointegration, Johansen multivariate cointegrated system, fractional cointegration and Granger caus...

In an economy where agents hold money, the short interest rate determines the trade-off between money holdings and consumption. Building on this idea, we develop a theoretical model that shows the transmission mechanism through which the short rate finds its way to stock-return predictability regressions. We construct a cointegration relation that links share prices and dividends to the short i...

This paper constitutes a first analysis on stock returns and stock return volatility of energy corporations from the Eurozone. According to our results, the gas market does not play a role for the pricing of Eurozone energy stocks. However, changes in the Euro to U.S. Dollar exchange rate as well as developments at the money and especially at the oil market strongly affect returns of the energy...

Recent empirical research found that the strong short-term relationship between monetary aggregates and US real output and inflation, as outlined in the classical study by M. Friedman and Schwartz, mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. In the light of the B. Friedman and Kuttner (1992) information value approach, we reevaluate the vanishing relationship between US monetary aggregates and th...

Many emerging market economies use alternative forms of capital controls. Often the use of capital controls is related to the defense of the exchange rate. This paper examines the welfare case for capital controls, and the interaction between capital controls and the exchange rate. The main question is whether capital controls may be justified, in order to gain independence in monetary policy, ...

The monetary unit assumption of financial accounting assumes a stable currency i.e., constant purchasing power over time . Yet, even during periods of low inflation or deflation, nominal financial statements violate this assumption. I posit that, while the effects of inflation are not recognized in nominal statements, such effects may have economic consequences. I find that unrecognized inflati...