The estimation of the capacity of an airspace region during weather events is an important part of air traffic management. This problem must be solved ahead of time with predicted traffic demands and weather forecasts. In order to capture the uncertainty of the weather, a stochastic weather model is used. We investigate the problem of estimating the maximum capacity of an airspace region by ana...

The EUMETSAT Metop-B satellite with onboard the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) has been successfully launched on September 17, 2012. ASCAT-B onboard Metop-B is identical to the already operational scatterometer ASCAT-A onboard Metop-A which was launched in 2006. KNMI has further developed an ocean calibration method for ASCAT-A, based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) wind inputs, the so-ca...

This paper is concerned with the implementation of Prediction Theories. Rather than developing an then attempting to implement a proof theory, it aims instead to implement their model theory by building computational counterparts of their relevant models. Prediction Theories are outlined and a working example is given. The basic model-building algorithm is then presented and its completeness an...

Recently there has been much interest in modeling the activity of primate midbrain dopamine neurons as signalling reward prediction error. But since the models are based on temporaldi!erence (TD) learning, they assume an exponential decline with time in the value of delayed reinforcers, an assumption long known to con#ict with animal behavior. We show that a variant of TD learning that tracks v...

Meteorological elements directly influence crop potential productivity, regulating its transpiration, photosynthesis, and respiration processes in such a way as to control the growth and development of the plants throughout their physiological mechanisms at a given site. The interaction of the meteorological factors with crop responses is complex and has been the target of attention of many res...

Does current utility bias predictions of future utility for high stakes decisions? Here I provide field evidence consistent with such Projection Bias in one of life’s most thought-about decisions: college enrolment. After arguing and documenting with survey evidence that cloudiness increases the appeal of academic activities, I analyse the enrolment decisions of 1,284 prospective students who v...

In this paper the author considers an autoregressive process where the parameters of the process are unknown and try to obtain pivots for predicting future observations. If we do a probabilistic prediction with the estimated model, where the parameters are estimated by a sample of size n, we introduce an error of order n−1 in the coverage probabilities of the prediction intervals. However we ca...

In three studies, we investigated to what extent a geometrical representation in a psychological space succeeds in predicting typicality in animal, natural food and artifact concepts and whether contrast categories contribute to the prediction. In Study 1, we compared the predictive value of a family resemblance-based prototype model with a geometrical centroid model in which similarity is defi...

Numerous virulent and widespread diseases are related to water. The transmission and outbreak of water-related diseases are closely coupled to their hydrological environment. Changes in this environment and the associated hydrological processes may affect the occurrence and virulence of waterrelated diseases. Environmental changes can be manifold, including e.g. climate and land use, agricultur...

We consider (prediction) markets where myopic agents sequentially interact with an automated market maker. We show a broad negative result: by varying the order of participation, the market’s aggregate prediction can converge to an arbitrary value. In other words, markets may fail to do any meaningful belief aggregation. On the positive side, we show that under a random participation model, ste...