A central problem ill empirical macroeconomics is to determine when and how much the exchange rate is misaligned. This paper clarifies and calculates the concept of’ the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector auto regression (VAR) model. By imposing long—run restrictions on a VAR model for Iran, lour structural shocks are identified: nominal demand, real demand, supply and oi...

Nowadays one of the most important issues in our economy, both from economic and political view is the link between monetary policy and business cycle fluctuations. Amongst the shocks related to the supply side, the shock of oil price is the important factor that has affected the world economy since the 1970s. This paper examines the effects of monetary policy and oil price shocks on the busine...

This paper provides a novel perspective to the nexus of oil prices and stock markets by examining impact price shocks on market anomalies. After decomposing into three types , we find that aggregate demand have strongest influence In contrast, supply oil-specific little impact. Similar results are also found in industry analysis. Interestingly, link between anomalies is among firms with either ...

We show that crude oil production from existing wells in Texas does not respond to current or expected future oil prices, contradicting a basic prediction of Hotelling’s (1931) canonical model of exhaustible resource extraction. In contrast, the drilling of new wells exhibits a strong price response, as does the rental rate on drilling rigs. To explain these observations, we reformulate Hotelli...

Traditional approaches to structural interpretation of vector autoregressions can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs about certain aspects of the model. These traditional methods can be generalized with a less restrictive Bayesian formulation that allows the researcher to summarize uncertainty coming not just from the data but also uncertaint...

This paper examines how the interaction between inflation expectations and nominal and real macroeconomic variables has evolved for the United Kingdom over the post-WWII period until 2007. We model time-variation through a Markov switching structural vector autoregressive framework with variants of the sign restriction identification scheme to back out the time-varying effect of different struc...

My paper is the first to provide long-term evidence on the dynamic effects of supply and demand shocks on mineral commodity prices. I explore a new annual data-set on prices and production of copper, lead, tin, zinc, and crude oil from 1840 to 2010. Long-term price fluctuations are mainly driven by persistent “world output-driven demand shocks” and “other demand shocks”. Historical accounts of ...