In this paper, we propose a model based on multivariate decomposition of multiplicative— absolute values and signs—components of several returns. In the m-variate case, the marginals for the m absolute values and the binary marginals for the m directions are linked through a 2m-dimensional copula. The approach is detailed in the case of a bivariate decomposition. We outline the construction of ...

The U.S. military, despite spending over $13 billion, appears powerless to stop the Iraqi insurgency’s improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which cause most of the military’s casualties and prevent victory by showing lawlessness and insecurity. However, this view ignores substitution effects we consider here. Using rational choice and expectations models, we find a backward-bending supply curve...

This paper explores the determinants of alternative monetary aggregates in Euroland. A sample consisting of quarterly data covering the 1980:1–1998:4 period is considered. We are interested whether a conventionally defined money demand equation is stable in some aggregates as opposed to others. Both long-run and short-run relationships are considered in this paper. Overall, the results indicate...

This paper explores the tail features of daily stock returns. Recently developed versions of the Hill estimator are used to measure the extreme positive and negative returns for a small set of individual daily stocks covering the period of 1926 through 2004. The findings report many of the accepted stylized facts about stock returns. Scaling exponents are reliably near 3, and generally stable o...

Are share markets too volatile? While it is difficult to ignore share market volatility it is important to determine whether volatility is excessive. This paper replicates the Shiller (1981) test as well as applying standard time series analysis to annual Australian stock market data for the period 1883 to 1999. While Shiller’s test suggests the possibility of excess volatility, time series ana...

We agree that either mistaking a stochastic trend for a deterministic trend (or vice-versa) is consequential for unit root tests and for tests of nonlinear serial dependence. In addition, we comment that similar results obtain for ordinary parameter inference in simple linear models. In particular, we note that detrending stochastically trended data with a deterministic polynomial or by applyin...

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of ‘news’ shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by ‘non-fundamentalness’ and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explainin...

This research compares partial equilibrium and statistical time-series approaches to hedging. The finance literature stresses the former approach, while the applied economics literature has focused on the latter. We compare the out-of-sample hedging effectiveness of the two approaches when hedging commodity price risk using futures contracts. For various methods of parameter estimation and infe...

The paper considers estimation and inference of time series GMM models where a subset of parameters are time varying. The magnitude of the time variation in the unstable parameters is such that efficient tests detect the instability with (possibly high) probability smaller than one, even in the limit. We show that for many forms of parameter instability and for a large class of GMM models, stan...

This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270 to 1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, preand post-industrial revolution. We also find t...